Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly

A convolutional neural network based deep learning methodology for recognition of partial discharge patterns from high voltage cables

It is a great challenge to differentiate partial discharge (PD) induced by different types of insulation defects in high-voltage cables. Some types of PD signals have very similar characteristics and are specifically difficult to differentiate, even for the most experienced specialists. To overcome the challenge, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning methodology for PD pattern recognition is presented in this paper. First, PD testing for five types of artificial defects in ethylene-propylene-rubber cables is carried out in high voltage laboratory to generate signals containing PD data. Second, 3500 sets of PD transient pulses are extracted, and then 33 kinds of PD features are established. The third stage applies a CNN to the data; typical CNN architecture and the key factors which affect the CNN-based pattern recognition accuracy are described. Factors discussed include the number of the network layers, convolutional kernel size, activation function, and pooling method. This paper presents a flowchart of the CNN-based PD pattern recognition method and an evaluation with 3500 sets of PD samples. Finally, the CNN-based pattern recognition results are shown and the proposed method is compared with two more traditional analysis methods, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and back propagation neural network (BPNN). The results show that the proposed CNN method has higher pattern recognition accuracy than SVM and BPNN, and that the novel method is especially effective for PD type recognition in cases of signals of high similarity, which is applicable for industrial applications

Preferential regulation of miRNA targets by environmental chemicals in the human genome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>microRNAs (miRNAs) represent a class of small (typically 22 nucleotides in length) non-coding RNAs that can degrade their target mRNAs or block their translation. Recent disease research showed the exposure to some environmental chemicals (ECs) can regulate the expression patterns of miRNAs, which raises the intriguing question of how miRNAs and their targets cope with the exposure to ECs throughout the genome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the properties of genes regulated by ECs (EC-genes) and found miRNA targets were significantly enriched among the EC-genes. Compared with the non-miRNA-targets, miRNA targets were roughly twice as likely to be EC-genes. By investigating the collection methods and other properties of the EC-genes, we demonstrated that the enrichment of miRNA targets was not attributed to either the potential collection bias of EC-genes, the presence of paralogs, longer 3'UTRs or more conserved 3'UTRs. Finally, we identified 1,842 significant concurrent interactions between 407 miRNAs and 497 ECs. This association network of miRNAs-ECs was highly modular and could be separated into 14 interconnected modules. In each module, miRNAs and ECs were closely connected, providing a good method to design accurate miRNA markers for ECs in toxicology research.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our analyses indicated that miRNAs and their targets played important roles in cellular responses to ECs. Association analyses of miRNAs and ECs will help to broaden the understanding of the pathogenesis of such chemical components.</p

Heat shock proteins in stabilization of spontaneously restored sinus rhythm in permanent atrial fibrillation patients after mitral valve surgery

A spontaneously restored sinus rhythm in permanent atrial fibrillation patients has been often observed after mitral valve (MV) surgery, but persisting duration in sinus rhythm varies from patient to patient. Heat shock proteins (Hsps) may be involved in pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that stabilization of restored sinus rhythm is associated with expression of Hsps in the atria. To test this hypothesis, clinical data, biopsies of right atrial appendage, and blood samples were collected from 135 atrial fibrillation patients who spontaneously restored sinus rhythm after conventional isolated MV replacement. Comparison was made between patients who had recurrence of atrial fibrillation within 7 days (AF) vs. patients with persisted sinus rhythm for more than 7 days (SR). Results showed that SR patients had higher activity of heat shock transcription factor 1 (HSF1) as well as upregulated expressions of heat shock cognate 70, Hsp70, and Hsp27 in the tissues. The activation of HSF1–Hsps pathway was associated with less-aggressive pathogenesis as reflected by lower rates of myolysis, apoptosis, interstitial fibrosis, and inflammation in SR patients. However, Hsp60 was lower in both tissue and plasma in SR patients, and was positively correlated with apoptosis, interstitial fibrosis, and inflammation. These findings suggest that the Hsps play important roles in stabilization of restored sinus rhythm after MV surgery by inhibiting AF-related atrial remodeling and arrhythmogenic substrates in atrial fibrillation patients. Low circulating Hsp60 levels preoperatively might predict a stable spontaneously restored sinus rhythm postoperatively

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Organising innovation management in emerging sustainable urban markets

This thesis brings together three papers to address one of the central problems in the management of innovation: how organisations manage innovations to enter, grow and succeed in emerging markets. It explores the paradoxical attributes of the firm and shows how stable and dynamic processes are mutually constitutive and occur at multiple levels. The first paper (Chapter 3) contributes to the literature of dynamic capabilities which has recently been questioned for subsuming “rigidity” and “flexibility” within one concept. The paper employs an inductive case study approach to examine the processes by which an organisation develops capabilities to enter, grow and shape an emerging sustainable urban market. Addressing a process problem of developing novel practices into good currency, the paper develops a conceptual model within which the three sets of activities dynamically combine and interact at different phases over time. The paper argues the conceptual model individually disaggregates the paradoxical problem, and holistically underlines the two countervailing processes of capability enhancement and consolidation. In particular, the findings illustrate the institutional origins of dynamic capabilities by introducing and analysing one set of activities: capability reinforcement. The second paper (Chapter 4) deepens the understanding of “capability reinforcement”. Existing studies in institutional entrepreneurship suggest central organisations confront the paradox of “structure and agency” when they move away from embedded fields and institutionalize their innovative practices or product. The study contributes to resolving the paradoxical problem by unfolding the process of an incumbent conducting entrepreneurial actions to dominate a nascent field. Based on a longitudinal analysis of interview and media dataset, the results show central organisations implement a combination of deliberate and emergent strategies to achieve dominance in nascent fields associated with contingent nature. Addressing a strategic problem of institutional leadership, the paper argues organisations adopt market-focused and socio-political approaches to implement such mixed strategies. The findings identify the resource-based origins of institutional entrepreneurship by introducing and examining a strategic mechanism: boundary infrastructure. While the empirical studies are carried out independently, their combined value exceeds the sum of the individual papers. Bridging the two theoretical streams, Chapter 5 extends my contribution by developing an integrative framework which benefits from appreciating the full spectrum of multi-level consolidation in the field of innovation management

Analytical Investigation of Ricochet Range of Ogive—Shaped Nose Projectile Obliquely Penetrating Thick Steel Target

The ricochet phenomenon has been studied worldwide for a long time in consideration of its significance in ballistics. A ricochet projectile has proven to be worthless to its launcher, as warheads fail to penetrate the interior of targets and strike the facilities and personnel of enemies effectively. A large portion of related research has been dedicated to avoiding ricocheting, which mainly focuses on improving the penetration ability of a projectile in order to obtain a better penetration effect, while investigations on the proactive protection of key targets from damage caused by a ricochet projectile are minor. This study analytically explores the ricochet range of a projectile obliquely penetrating a thick steel target. Firstly, the moment of momentum equation of the ricochet projectile based on theoretical mechanics is utilised to analytically calculate its trajectory, where a mathematical model of a two-stage ricochet impacting is established through the geometrical analysis of the ricochet process for determining the ricochet range of a projectile and the size of the bulletproof structure. Then, impact experiments of a projectile obliquely penetrating thick steel targets at different striking velocities and inclination angles are carried out, and the influences of the striking velocity and angle of attack on the damage pattern, area and penetration depth are discussed to identify the ricochet phenomenon. Moreover, the deflection angle of the ricochet projectile is computed, which is compared with the experimental measurements in order to validate the accuracy of this proposed model. This proposed research may promote security protection during live-firing training and provide a theoretical foundation for the optimisation of purposeful protection